
The International Fertilizer Association's medium-term outlook projects phosphoric acid output rising about 1% to 85 Mt in 2023 and MAP plus DAP rising about 3% to 64.3 Mt. Both remain below 2020 levels after three years of decline.
Lower Moroccan output is offset by gains in China and West Asia.
A modest recovery in phosphate supply eases the tightness that has kept phosphate prices high, but volumes remain below pre-2020 levels. The outlook implies a gradual, not sharp, change in DAP pricing.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.