
US pork futures fell sharply as the CME Pork Price Index dropped 84 cents and was down 2.18 dollars over three days, with pig slaughter up 2.75% year on year. China's pork imports rose 35.8% in the first two months of 2023, and a new African swine fever outbreak is expected to cut Chinese production and lift prices in the second quarter.
Rising Chinese pork imports and African swine fever losses support global hog and pork prices, while abundant US supply pressures near-term hog prices and feed demand.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.