
USDA's May 12 WASDE gave the first 2023/24 wheat outlook, projecting record 2023/24 world production of 789.7 MMT but a fourth straight year of consumption exceeding output. Global ending stocks are forecast at a eight-year low of 264.3 MMT, with major-exporter output down 10 MMT led by Russia and Australia.
Tightening stocks and lower Russian and Australian output support wheat prices, while wheat feed substitution affects corn and meal demand for feed buyers.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.