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China expelled a Canadian diplomat in Shanghai on May 8, 2023, a retaliatory step after Canada expelled Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei the day before over alleged intimidation of a Canadian MP. The row escalates tensions over alleged Chinese interference in Canada.
Canada is a major potash and wheat supplier to China, so worries about trade retaliation add some risk premium to Canadian canola, potash and wheat flows, though no measure has been imposed yet.
reuters.comEduardo BaptistaMay 8, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
