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Canola futures rose strongly in recent weeks on Midwest and western Canada weather concerns, with the November ICE contract gaining $73 per tonne over two weeks to a three-month high. Funds exited short positions, and soybean oil fell about 400 basis points on June 21 after the EPA biofuels announcement.
Weather-driven fund short covering lifts canola prices, while the disappointing EPA biofuel volumes weigh on soybean oil and limit canola gains.
agupdate.comBARRY COLEMAN, Northern Canola Growers AssociationJun 26, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
