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Corn, soybeans and wheat rallied at the close on December 26, 2023 after forecasts showed hot, dry conditions persisting in central and northern Brazil. Corn closed up 4 cents, January soybeans up 2 cents, and wheat 6 to 13 cents higher.
Livestock futures also closed higher, with February hogs up $1.42.
Dryness in Brazil threatens its safrinha corn and soybean crops, which supports prices for US exports and feed ingredients. Traders are pricing in the risk of smaller South American supplies.
agriculture.comAl KluisDec 26, 2023After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dec 26 rally in corn on forecasts of persistent hot, dry weather in central and northern Brazil raised supply risk for the safrinha crop and drove buying.
