An OECD data explainer says fertiliser supply shortages and soaring prices are threatening cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa. Phosphate prices rose sharply in early 2023 across several countries, and fertiliser use in the region is very low compared with the world average.
Reduced fertiliser use in West Africa lowers regional grain yields and may increase import demand, though the region has a small direct footprint in global feed-grain prices.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, UREA moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.