
UK poultry ration costs rose by £18/t in July after the Black Sea grain deal collapsed, though the ration remains £54/t lower than a year earlier. UK feed wheat futures climbed from £195/t to £216/t, boosted by attacks on Danube grain stores, and soya meal prices also rose.
Lost Black Sea shipments and Danube disruption tighten wheat and soymeal supply, lifting feed input costs for UK poultry producers.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.