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Soybean oil FOB basis in South America fell to record lows on June 30, with Paranaguá at minus 1,850 points and Up River at minus 1,800 points against CBOT August. Weak destination demand from India and China, which are pressured by cheaper sunflower and palm oil, drove the drop, and a recent CBOT futures surge pushed offers lower.
Record-low physical premiums signal weak export demand for South American soyoil and make it harder to sell cargoes at the current futures level. Cheaper competing vegetable oils also cap soyoil's price, which is bearish for the soy complex.
spglobal.comJose GomesJul 3, 2023After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 67 past neutral trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.3%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
