
USDA is expected to raise its 2024-25 soybean oil export estimate again after strong February sales and a 20,000 mt flash sale. Total commitments of 1.607 billion pounds already exceed the current USDA projection of 1.6 billion.
Robust export demand for US soyoil, supported by a discount to palm oil and Indonesian and Indian biofuel mandates, supports soyoil prices.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 67 past neutral trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.3%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.