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European bourses were mostly firmer on August 31 after flash euro zone HICP data and Schnabel's balanced remarks. Pricing for a 25bp ECB hike in September fell to about 30%, from over 60% in recent sessions.
The dollar index rose and pressured other currencies, and crude continued to climb.
A sharp drop in ECB hike pricing pushes the dollar higher, which can soften dollar-denominated feed commodity prices. Crude's rise adds some cost pressure through energy and freight.
newsquawk.comAug 31, 2023After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
