
Statistics Canada's September stocks report put 2022-23 oat ending stocks at 1.275 million tonnes, well above the prior year and the five-year average. Analysts expect the upcoming production report to raise the 2023-24 oat estimate, though it will remain well short of last year.
Cash bids in Manitoba and Alberta have fallen over the past month.
Large old-crop carryout offsets the smaller new crop, keeping Canadian oat supplies comfortable and pressuring feed oat prices. Buyers have less reason to pay premiums while stocks stay heavy.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.