Brazil: How higher for how longer?

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2017Brazilian assets: highly driven by global developments - Rabobank — Octa-0.2%
• Jul 18, 2018Brazil: Presidential race about to start - Rabobank - Forex Crunch-3.2%
• Jul 30, 2019Brazil: BCB to ease - TDS — Octa+4.1%
• Oct 30, 2019Brazil: BCB to cut rates by 50bps – TDS — Octa-0.1%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank-3.5%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Dec 15, 2022Gold broods over Fed's higher-for-longer rate hike stance+0.4%
• Sep 21, 2023Gold retreats on Fed's higher-for-longer stance+1.7%
• Sep 20, 2023Oil prices ease 1% after US Fed warns of higher rates for longer+1.1%
• Feb 24, 2023Dollar steady on higher-for-longer rates outlook; yen volatile | Financial Post+0.0%
• Oct 31, 2022USD/CAD: Risk appetite to be challenging for a while longer, weighing on the loonie – HSBC — Octa-0.1%