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Minnesota-based Ceres Global Ag agreed to pay a $3 million civil penalty to the CFTC over attempts in 2016 and 2017 to manipulate oat futures. The company said it had been cooperating with the CFTC and Department of Justice since 2021.
Enforcement against manipulation supports confidence in CBOT oats pricing but does not change the underlying oat supply. The case has little direct effect on feed prices.
After 16 past neutral policy events, Oats moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -3.1% to +4.3%), and -5.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.