
Argentina's weekend election left Peronist economy minister Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei heading to a November run-off, after Massa failed to win outright. Massa backs policies seen as restrictive for the farm and processing sectors, while Milei has pledged to remove state intervention from farming and exports.
The uncertain policy outcome affects Argentina's soymeal and oil export supply, which moves global protein meal prices.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.