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The EU JRC's September ASAP assessment expects low cereal yields in parts of East Africa, Central and South Asia and Central America. It reports positive wheat prospects in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
It also warns that El Niño-linked dryness could hurt Southern Africa's 2023/24 season.
Localized yield shortfalls in import-dependent regions can lift import demand for wheat and corn. The effect on world prices is limited because the largest exporters are not the main areas affected.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euOct 11, 2023After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
