
Historically low Mississippi River water levels are limiting grain movement into peak fall harvest, and downbound barge rates from Southern Illinois rose from $12 to $46 per ton between July and late September. CoBank also cites a strong US dollar and export competition from Brazil and Russia.
Outstanding US corn sales to China are down 64.8% year on year.
Higher barge freight and river constraints widen interior basis and reduce US export competitiveness, pressuring corn and soybean prices. Barge freight is pushed higher as a direct result.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.