Mississippi River Near Historic Lows, Grain Exports at Risk

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 359 past bearish logistics events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 26, 2026Low Mississippi River puts Southern grain basis at risk | Feed & Grain-1.0%
• Nov 6, 2023CoBank – Strong US dollar, low Mississippi River limit grain movement & oilseed exports-0.5%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-1.4%
• Sep 20, 2021Ida, Nicholas Temporarily Halt Grain Exports From Lower Mississippi River - The Waterways Journal-4.3%
• Oct 2, 2020High Water Persists in Mississippi River System | Feed & Grain-1.1%

After 297 past bearish logistics events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 26, 2026Low Mississippi River puts Southern grain basis at risk | Feed & Grain-1.5%
• Nov 6, 2023CoBank – Strong US dollar, low Mississippi River limit grain movement & oilseed exports+0.5%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-2.0%
• Sep 20, 2021Ida, Nicholas Temporarily Halt Grain Exports From Lower Mississippi River - The Waterways Journal+0.1%
• Dec 13, 2023Ag transportation expert: unclear how low Mississippi River is affecting ag exports - Brownfield Ag News-0.8%

After 48 past neutral logistics events, SBM moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 19, 2024Argentina grains ships load less cargo as river levels hit near-record lows+2.4%
• Jun 28, 2024Army Corps of Engineers Expects Challenges with Mississippi River Navigation - ProAg+5.3%
• Jul 20, 2020Argentina's loss in soy oil exports due to Paraná river drought is Brazil's gain - DatamarNews+1.5%
• Sep 8, 2026Grain exports flow again as Argentina reaches deal with striking pilots | World Ports Organization+1.1%
• Jan 8, 2025Low river levels remain a concern for inland waterways - Brownfield Ag News+0.9%