USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service reported that downbound barged grain on the Mississippi totaled 3.9 million tons from July 8 to September 30, 35 percent below the third quarter of 2022 and 53 percent below the five-year average. Low water restrictions began in June, about two months earlier than in 2022.
The report draws on the Grain Transportation Report of October 5.
Sharply lower barge volumes mean less grain reaches Gulf export terminals, which tightens nearby supplies and weakens basis for inland elevators. Freight costs are rising on restricted sections, pressuring basis further.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.