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Live cattle and feeder cattle futures fell sharply on November 9 after the WASDE report raised its 2024 beef production estimate above expectations. Feeder contracts led the drop, with nearby prices down nearly $8 per cwt.
Cash trade was also $4 to $5 lower and choice boxed beef slipped below $300.
A larger projected 2024 beef supply adds to bearish pressure on cattle prices already weakened by slower slaughter and softer beef demand. Feeder and live cattle values are likely to stay under pressure until the supply outlook firms.
dtnpf.comElaine SheinNov 10, 2023After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE report on Nov 9 raised 2024 beef production estimates above expectations, triggering a sharp sell-off in feeder futures (nearby down nearly $8/cwt), directly matching the move's date and size.
