
Argentina's government let the peso plunge over 50% to about 801 per dollar on December 13 as markets cautiously welcomed the first details of President Javier Milei's economic overhaul. Non-deliverable forwards priced in further weakness, and bonds rose on average.
A sharp peso devaluation makes Argentine exports cheaper in dollar terms, which can speed soybean meal and oil export selling and weigh on Argentine crush and world meal prices. It also raises the cost of imported feed inputs in Argentina.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.