An Agricultural Commodities analysis finds the 2023-24 global grain and oilseed production forecast slightly lower than in September, yet still above 2022-23. Downward revisions to wheat, oilseed and rice output, reflecting below-average rain and above-average temperatures, more than offset higher coarse grain production.
Lower wheat, oilseed and rice estimates tighten global supplies and support prices, partly offset by larger coarse grain output.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.