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USDA FAS raised its 2026/27 wheat and barley production forecasts for Australia after drought-breaking rains in New South Wales and Queensland. It also forecast higher wheat exports, lower sorghum output and very low rice production, and flagged the El Niño declaration as a downside risk.
Larger Australian wheat and barley supplies add export competition, which is bearish for those grains. Lower sorghum and rice output tightens those markets and supports prices.
fas-prod.azureedge.usJul 1, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 88 past bullish report events, RICE moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
