
The rupee ended FY24 down 1.5% against the dollar at 83.40, its best year in three, and outperformed most emerging market peers. Higher oil prices, which rallied about 19% from December lows, pressured the currency while Russian crude imports cushioned the impact.
Rising crude costs widen India's current account deficit and raise the cost of imported inputs, but the currency's relative strength limits the hit to feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.