
Brent returned to $100 a barrel as U.S. Treasury yields jumped, with five-year yields moving above 5% for the first time since 2007. The rupee faces pressure from these moves and from about $3.5 billion of net foreign selling in stocks and bonds this month.
The RBI has been selling dollars spot and forward to defend the 96-per-dollar level.
Higher oil and U.S. yields raise India's import costs and drain capital, pushing USD/INR toward the RBI's defended level. Intervention can also tighten rupee liquidity and raise short-term borrowing rates.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.