
The rupee opened 11 paise lower at 95.49 per dollar on August 31 as a stronger dollar and elevated crude prices weighed on the currency. Market odds of a September Fed hike rose to nearly 60% after Warsh's comments, and Brent moved back toward $90 a barrel.
Higher oil and a firmer dollar raise India's import bill and push USDINR up, which increases the cost of dollar-denominated feed inputs for Indian buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.