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ING expects Latin American central banks to keep cutting rates quickly, with Banxico starting an easing cycle at 11.00%. It forecasts USD/BRL drifting down to 4.70 over 12 months, while noting the real has lagged after a government intervention involving Petrobras and falling iron ore prices.
Rate cuts and a weaker dollar outlook tend to support the real, which can make Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms and add competition for US soybean and corn sales.
think.ing.comChris TurnerMar 22, 2024After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
