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ING's Latam FX outlook on October 13, 2025 says the Brazilian real is holding gains supported by high carry yields above 13%, with USD/BRL around 5.48. It flags Brazil's October 2026 election and fiscal risks, and says a warmer Trump-Lula relationship and lower 50% US tariffs would be positive for the real.
A firmer real reduces the cost of Brazilian soybean and meal exports in dollar terms, which can soften global prices, while political or tariff shifts could change Brazilian export competitiveness.
think.ing.comChris TurnerOct 13, 2025After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
