
USDA's February forecast projects US net cash farm income will fall about 24% to $122bn in 2024, which is 40% below the 2022 record. The decline reflects broad drops in commodity prices, with corn and soybean futures roughly 47% and 32% below their 2022 peaks.
Lower farm income and weaker prices reflect ample global supply. This points to continued pressure on feed grain prices unless supply tightens.
After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.