◂ Event Timeline

Nov 1, 2026WEATHERIndia

Food inflation worries mount amid low kharif yield, sluggish rabi sowing

Retail prices of rice, sugar, mustard oil and onion in India are well above last year's levels. Food inflation reached 7.74% in September, and kharif output is expected to fall on a deficient El Niño-affected monsoon.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lower Indian kharif output and high domestic prices point to firmer rice demand and tighter supply, which supports rice prices and may prompt further trade interventions.

AFFECTSRough Rice▲

SOURCE
financialexpress.comNov 1, 2026

Price reaction & history

Rough Rice▲bullishSO FAR1d +2.7%5d —20d —

After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

Oct 23, 2020Wild weather sparking food inflation+2.0%
Jul 20, 2021After second wave, patchy monsoon rains are raising growth and inflation worries for India+3.9%
Aug 11, 2023China floods hit rice, corn crops; trigger food inflation worries | Reuters-3.1%
Oct 10, 2022Threat of food inflation looms as India grapples with delayed heavy rains-0.5%
Apr 5, 2024High rice inflation could linger until July as market prices keep going up+4.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Rough Rice RICE · GP ▸

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