Oil Futures Up, Shake Off Weakness Spurred by GDP Surprise

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Aug 10, 2020WTI Futures Rise on US Stimulus Progress+2.1%
• Jan 29, 2026USD/CAD slides to 1.3530, pressured by bullish Oil and weak USD+2.9%
• Aug 25, 2023Oil futures up 1% to one-week high on soaring US diesel prices+5.3%
• Sep 30, 2021C$ turns weaker as dour Bank of Canada offsets oil surge+3.5%
• Aug 30, 2021Asian shares rise on dovish Fed chair, oil up as hurricane batters Louisiana | Reuters+0.8%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 10, 2020WTI Futures Rise on US Stimulus Progress+1.3%
• Jan 29, 2026USD/CAD slides to 1.3530, pressured by bullish Oil and weak USD+0.9%
• Mar 17, 2026USD/THB: BofA raises Thailand baht forecast on oil shock, tourism weakness By Investing.com+1.2%
• Sep 28, 2026Rand weakens as oil prices rise and rate-hike fears support dollar+6.5%
• Nov 9, 2020OIL FUTURES: Oil prices surge as market eyes COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough | S&P Global+8.7%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2026USD/CAD slides to 1.3530, pressured by bullish Oil and weak USD+0.6%
• Aug 30, 2021Asian shares rise on dovish Fed chair, oil up as hurricane batters Louisiana | Reuters-0.7%
• Nov 18, 2020Sterling pushed up by weaker US dollar, hopes of Brexit deal | Malay Mail-0.2%
• Mar 4, 2020Dollar left devastated by surprise Fed rate cut+1.2%
• Aug 28, 2020USD: Fed has set up the dollar for further weakness - MUFG - Forex Crunch-0.5%