The yuan is strengthening to a four-year high, with the PBoC setting firmer daily fixings but moving more slowly than traders wanted. OCBC expects gradual appreciation, and China's Fifth Plenum ended without new stimulus.
A firmer yuan raises China's purchasing power for imported feed ingredients and can support Chinese import demand for soybeans and meal at the margin.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.