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Wood Mackenzie says commodity indices have risen about 50% since early 2016, driven by global growth that reached a six-year high of 3.1% in Q4 2017. The analysis links commodity prices to the US dollar, which had started weakening from a 15-year high.
Sustained global growth supports commodity demand, while a weaker dollar tends to lift dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices.
woodmac.comSimon FlowersFeb 20, 2018After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
