
The May WASDE projected record 2024/25 world wheat production of 798.2 MMT and consumption of 802.4 MMT. USDA cut Russian wheat production to 88.0 MMT, the lowest since 2021, and Ukrainian output to 21.0 MMT.
CBOT wheat futures rose from $5.53 to $6.63 a bushel between April 18 and May 10.
A USDA forecast of consumption exceeding production and lower Russian and Ukrainian output reduces export supplies and supports wheat prices.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.