USDA's April report cut projected global wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 600,000 mt to 258.3 million mt, the lowest in eight years. The decline was driven mainly by a forecast 2.1 million mt drop in India's stocks to 6.9 million mt, as government estimates implied faster use.
Tighter global wheat stocks, led by India and China, support wheat prices and reduce the cheap feed-wheat alternative available to feed buyers.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.