The USDA forecasts global wheat exportable supplies will fall by 6.6 million mt this season, mostly in major exporters. Exports are expected to rise from the Americas and Australia while European exports contract.
Southern Hemisphere exportable surplus could rise by over 8 million mt.
A projected drop in global exportable supplies is supportive for wheat prices, though larger Southern Hemisphere exports offset some of the tightness.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.