
China's government is pushing domestic infant formula self-sufficiency, with imports falling 35% from the 2019 peak to 223,000 MT. Beijing now plans to promote fresh dairy over reconstituted milk through labeling, and China's dairy cow herd reached 6.5 million head at the end of last year.
Lower Chinese dairy import demand and domestic herd growth reduce global dairy trade volumes, a mildly bearish factor for dairy prices. The impact on feed demand is gradual.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.