
Milk production grew 1.2% year over year in June, but cash prices for barrel cheese fell about 20 cents since early June and cash butter dropped 15 cents. Retaliatory tariffs from China and Mexico, effective early July, appear to be cutting exports; cheese exports fell about 15% in May, with exports to Mexico down about 35%.
Weaker export demand for U.S. dairy is pushing down domestic dairy prices despite slowing milk output, which weighs on the Class III milk price feed buyers track.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.