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The World Bank's October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertiliser prices rising 14% in 2026 before easing in 2027. Urea is forecast at $510 per tonne in 2026 and DAP at $735, with both declining in 2027.
Fertiliser prices fell 22% in the third quarter from the second.
Forecast declines in urea and DAP for 2027 point to easing fertilizer input costs for crop production. Lower fertilizer costs can support farm margins and planting, a mildly bearish outlook for fertilizer-linked prices.
profit.pakistantoday.com.pkOct 29, 2026After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
World Bank's October outlook projects DAP falling 18% in 2027 and notes Q3 easing in fertilizer prices, a bearish sentiment signal published the day before the drop.
