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Regional escalation risk lifts crude oil risk premium.
WikipediaAfter 948 past geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.8%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Israel–Hamas war, which began on Oct 7, kept raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict that could disrupt supply, lifting crude's geopolitical risk premium; the 5.8% jump on Oct 13 fits that escalation-driven sentiment even though the war started six days earlier.
The Israel–Hamas war, which began on Oct 7, kept raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict that could disrupt supply, lifting crude's geopolitical risk premium; the 5.8% jump on Oct 13 fits that escalation-driven sentiment even though the war started six days earlier.
