Investing.com previews a data-heavy week covering US midterms, Canada's federal budget, and employment reports. CIBC says a renewed US military assault on Iran could disrupt Hormuz shipping and lift fuel prices, raising odds of further Fed and BoC hikes.
Higher fuel costs and possible rate hikes from geopolitical escalation would lift energy and feed transport costs while strengthening the US dollar against commodity-linked currencies.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.