Lower nitrogen prices reflect weaker demand from India and a short-term rise in Chinese supply, while Southeast Asian output is disrupted by plant downtime. Red Sea diversions keep freight costs high, and Chinese export restart is delayed to Q3 2024.
Delayed Chinese exports and Southeast Asian outages support nitrogen prices, while high freight costs add to delivered fertilizer costs.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.