Russian Wheat Exports Fall 38% as Arctic Port Loads Grain

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 4, 2026Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks+0.1%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-0.7%
• Aug 19, 2025Ships Queue at Russian Grain Port-1.7%
• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters+2.4%
• May 15, 2025Grain transshipment at Russian ports fell by more than 50% in 2025-3.9%

After 22 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters-4.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed - The Sizov Report blog-2.5%
• Mar 9, 2022Explainer: India's wheat exports surge as world prices soar | Reuters-2.4%
• Aug 30, 2021Wheat gains as traders weigh export prospects amid Hurricane Ida | Air Freight News+0.4%
• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.