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Grain transshipment at Russian seaports fell 52.7% in the first four months of 2025 to 12.1 million tonnes. Novorossiysk shipments from May 1 to 11 were roughly half of last year's level, as high domestic prices, falling world prices and export duties made exports unprofitable.
Russia's export capacity is shrinking as traders cut purchases, removing supply from world wheat markets and supporting prices.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.