
Russian grain shipments through the Black Sea port of Kavkaz have been sharply curtailed in August 2025 by new ship entry and inspection rules tied to a July decree by President Putin. About 350,000 tonnes have moved since August began, versus 1.5–2 million tonnes a month typically, with more than 120 ships waiting.
Kavkaz handles nearly a quarter of Russian seaborne grain, so the bottleneck reduces near-term export supply and can lift Black Sea wheat and corn offers, while raising coastal freight rates.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.