
A StoneX analysis explains the dollar's strength in 2024 through global monetary tightening and high US yields. It notes investors have reduced bets on Fed rate cuts after stronger-than-expected US data.
A strong dollar and a weaker real make Brazilian commodities cheaper in dollar terms, which tends to support Brazilian export volumes and pressure dollar-priced grain values.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.