
China's soymeal stocks reached a record 1.38 million tonnes as of July 26, according to the China National Grain & Oils Information Center, up 29% month on month and 86.5% year on year. Soybean stocks at crushing plants rose to 7.12 million tonnes, up 14.3% from the prior month.
Record Chinese soymeal and soybean inventories reduce near-term import demand and weigh on export prospects for new-crop US soybeans and meal. Bearish pressure on soybean and soymeal prices is likely as harvest begins.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.