
Vietnamese 5% broken export rice was offered at USD 470-480 per tonne on October 29, up from USD 440-450 the week before and the highest since January 2025. Traders cite tight domestic supply, a winter-spring harvest not starting until late November with output about half the summer-autumn crop, and El Niño risks to next year's output.
Lower harvest volumes and El Niño risk tighten near-term Asian rice supply, supporting export prices. Feed buyers may see rice-based feed ingredients and substitutes firm as Philippine demand returns.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.