China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said at a State Council Information Office briefing that H1 2024 output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry rose 0.6%, egg production 2.7% and milk 3.4% year on year. Hog farmers are profitable again at about 400 yuan per pig, while beef and fresh milk prices fell 12.1% and 12.5% and cattle farming is loss-making.
Ample livestock supply and rising hog margins point to continued herd rebuilding in China, supporting feed demand, while low beef and milk prices weigh on cattle and dairy economics.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 30 past bearish policy events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.