
USDA finalized its Federal Order dairy pricing reform, which raises the make allowance and lowers federal order minimum prices, with a producer referendum planned for December or January. Implementation timing is still unclear, though changes could begin as early as March pricing.
US cheese output is also expected to rise by nearly 20 million pounds per day by mid-2025 as processing expansions come online.
Lower minimum class prices under the reform would reduce producer milk checks, and rising cheese output adds supply pressure on cheese and milk prices.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.